The Neurodynamics of an Election (Pdf
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F. T. Rocha*, E. Massad, A. F. Rocha and M.N. Burattini
Medical Informatics, University of São Paulo, Brazil *fabio@enscer.com.br
Results
Considering only the Possible/Certain votes, our poll opinion disclosed
equilibrium between the Yes and No votes (Intention), similar to that published
by the Brazilian pollster Ibope on October 16.
However, 13% of the volunteers provided a second opinion showing that they
could change their mind in the Election Day. Taking this into account, the
final result would be No=67% and Yes=33% (Expected voting),
very similar to the actual result of the election (Actual
vote).
This was mainly due to a possible migration of the Certainly-not-Yes vote
to a No vote signaled in the second opinion (R). This result was not forecasted
by any of the polls published before the election, even in the one of October
21, estimating No=53% and Yes=45%.
